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VaxGen's AidsVax: company "may not be going concern" after vaccine flop

The failure of AidsVax to prevent infection with HIV - in clinical trial results published in 2003 - triggered an intense debate about the controversial product and its manufacturer, VaxGen Inc of Brisbane, California. Mail to this website, maintained by Brian Deer, shows that existing material on a VaxGen-AidsVax index is read by significant numbers. This page seeks to further inform the discussion



On August 18 2003, the SEC 10Q document filed by VaxGen Inc painted a worrying picture of the company's ability to continue trading following the failure of its US clinical trial to show efficacy for AidsVax. Perhaps most telling with regard to the company's precarious state was a warning from its accountants that it may not be a viable enterprise. The following is an extract from the "risks" section of the SEC filing.

As of June 30, 2003, we had $14,599,000 of cash and cash equivalents and investment securities. We believe that our existing cash and cash equivalents and investment securities, together with investment income and funds primarily from existing government contracts and grants, will enable us to meet our forecasted expenditures through the first quarter of 2004, but our existing capital resources will not be sufficient to commercialize AIDSVAX. In addition, we have based this estimate on assumptions that may prove to be wrong. In addition, our independent accountants have expressed doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern. Even if we are technically able to successfully develop AIDSVAX in light of our recent clinical trials, we expect additional development efforts and clinical trials will add several years to the development timeline and result in substantial additional expense. We are unable to fund these efforts with our current financial resources. In addition, unless we receive the next government contract to advance development of our anthrax vaccine, we will need to obtain additional funding to support our vaccine candidates as well as to continue operations past the first quarter of 2004. We do not know if additional financing will be available, at all or on acceptable terms. Any additional equity financing will be dilutive to existing stockholders, and debt financing, if available, may involve restrictive covenants. Collaborative arrangements will require us to relinquish our rights to certain technologies drug candidates or marketing territories. If we fail to raise sufficient funds, we would have to curtail or cease operations.

We depend on the award of government contracts, which involve the coordination of several government agencies, for the development of our anthrax vaccine. The process of procuring government contracts is lengthy and uncertain. If we fail to obtain future contracts to pursue advanced development of our anthrax vaccine, or provide an emergency stockpile, we may not be able to commercialize the product and we may be unable to raise additional funds to continue operations.

We have entered into a contract with the NIH to develop an anthrax vaccine. The contract requires us to provide a plan for how we could manufacture an emergency stockpile of at least 25 million doses. However, the contracts for advanced development and the emergency stockpile are each subject to separate awards, which we must compete for. The process of obtaining government contracts is lengthy and uncertain, and we cannot be certain that we would be awarded these contracts. Our current business plan is highly dependent on obtaining these additional contracts. If we fail to win these awards, we may be unable to raise additional funds to continue our operations beyond the first quarter of 2004.

In addition, the federal government has undertaken multiple commitments to help secure improved countermeasures against bio-terrorism, including those, which might arise from the illegal use of smallpox and anthrax. The determination of when and whether a product is ready for use and large scale purchase will be made by a combination of authoritative organizations, including the FDA, the NIH, the CDC, and the Department of Homeland Security. In addition, President Bush has proposed and Congress is actively considering measures to speed up the review of countermeasure products by the NIH, the review process by the FDA and the final government procurement contracting authority. Although project BioShield was passed by the House of Representatives in July 2003 by a vote of 421 to 2, we cannot predict the timing of enactment of pending legislation nor can we predict the decisions that will be made in the future by various government agencies.

Clinical development is a long, expensive and uncertain process, and delay or failure can occur at any stage of our clinical trials. We may not succeed in our efforts to develop AIDSVAX based on our preliminary results and not meeting the primary endpoint of the Phase III clinical trial. We must provide the FDA and foreign regulatory authorities with clinical data that demonstrate the safety and statistically significant efficacy of our product candidates before they can be approved for commercial sale. Clinical development is a long, expensive and uncertain process, and delay or failure can occur at any stage of our clinical trials. AIDSVAX is our most advanced product candidate. Earlier this year we announced data from the first of two Phase III clinical trials for AIDSVAX, in which we failed to meet the primary endpoint of the trial, but did observe some evidence of efficacy in certain racial subgroups. We will need to modify the vaccine in order to continue developing it for use in a broad population. In addition, we believe that we will have to conduct additional clinical trials of AIDSVAX in order to obtain approval from the FDA either in a broad patient population or in any particular subgroups. These development efforts and subsequent clinical trials are lengthy and expensive, and the outcome is uncertain. Even with modifications, we may discover that AIDSVAX fails to protect individuals from contracting HIV. If we are unable to successfully develop AIDSVAX, we will be unable to generate revenue from this product opportunity, and our stock price is likely to decline. We have limited experience in developing other types of vaccines and products, such as smallpox and anthrax vaccines, and may be unable to develop other vaccines and products, which could adversely affect our ability to execute our business strategy, our business and our financial condition.

Part of our business strategy is to develop biologic products for the prevention and treatment of human infectious diseases. In September 2002, we were awarded a contract from NIAID to develop a new anthrax vaccine and to create a feasibility plan to manufacture an emergency stockpile of 25 million doses. In December 2002, we entered into agreements with Kaketsuken to initiate development of Kaketsuken's attenuated smallpox vaccine for use in the United States. We have only limited experience in developing other types of vaccines and products, so we may not be able to develop either an effective anthrax vaccine or a smallpox vaccine for use in the United States or receive the appropriate regulatory approvals to distribute either vaccine candidate in the U.S. If these development efforts fail, it could adversely affect our ability to execute our business strategy, our business and our financial condition. Delay in completing our clinical trials could jeopardize our ability to obtain regulatory approval or market our vaccine candidates on a timely basis.

The risks section continues with other information on VaxGen in the SEC form 10Q, available from standard reference sources.


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