Hype
artist Porter Stansberry proclaims
"stunning" news before VaxGen crashes
A midnight announcement on February 24 2003 that
the candidate HIV vaccine AidsVax showed no
effect in a phase III clinical trial was long
predicted by independent scientists. Inquiries by
Brian Deer during his 1999 Sunday
Times investigation of VaxGen, unearthed a worrying
picture, and led to the prosecution of Dr William
Heyward, who as HIV vaccine chief at the Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention cheer-led for
VaxGen's technology and arranged federal grants
whilst secretly engaged to join the company
As the pivotal
clinical trial of AidsVax progressed, the company
forged another close relationship - with stock
hypester Porter Stansberry.
Annotated extracts from material at the
Stansberry website is reproduced at another page
here, claiming to prove that AidsVax works, and below are excerpts
from "Blast", a mailshot to his
followers before the stock markets opened on
February 24. VaxGen opened at $3.31, shedding a
staggering twenty bucks from its 52-week high and
more than $30 from its post-IPO peak
Porter
Stansberry's "Blast" is dated February
24, 2003 and opens with the following heading:
AIDSVAX PROVES
SUCCESSFUL
IN CERTAIN ETHNIC GROUPS;
APPROACH SHOULD LEAD TO END OF EPIDEMIC
Porter Stansberry says:
I have stunningly good news to
report.
He claims that the vaccine was
"proved" to be "broadly effective
in stopping HIV infection in two ethnic
groups". He says: "Specifically, the
incidence of infection in black people was
reduced by 78%; in Asian volunteers infections
were reduced by 67%."
Thus, AIDSVAX seems to work.
He says the
challenge will be to "improve the immune
response" in whites and Asians, but that he
wouldn't be surprised to see news organizations
report that the vaccine was a failure.
The press has covered this story
almost solely from the perspective of their
primary sources, government-backed
scientists, most of whom hate Don Francis,
VaxGen's founder and president. Also, because
VaxGen's approach was so widely dismissed,
there is an enormous short position in the
stock. These investors are now in enormous
jeopardy and, more than likely, will lobby
the reporters covering the story to
accentuate the negatives in the data.
In the early
hours before the stock crashed to $3, from a
52-week high of $23.25, Porter Stansberry told
his followers:
I suspect the stock will soar
tomorrow.
And he
offers to tell us why. He says the trial was
carried out "flawlessly", the vaccine
is "safe and impressively effective in the
two ethnic groups", and "being
effective in black people may be worth more to
VaxGen".
But to really understand why these results
are so impressive, you need to know what the
previous chimp and monkey data has always
suggested: that there's a correlation between
antibody production and protection - a
"correlate of protection." In the
monkey tests there was a range of antibody
responses. The strongest responders were
protected from infection and the weaker
responders didn't develop AIDS. If that's
also true for the human volunteers, VaxGen
has a profoundly valuable vaccine - one that
prevents infection in some subjects and
prevents AIDS in almost everyone.
It also seems likely to me that VaxGen will
attempt to alter their vaccine formula
slightly to induce a stronger immune response
in whites and hispanics. One way of doing
this could be to use Antigenics' adjuvant,
QS-21.
Porter
Stansberry concludes his hype mail by speaking of
"a very brave group of medical
entrepreneurs" who he says "have
something fantastic to celebrate" after
putting their "reputations on the line"
to stop HIV.
Tonight for the first time since
the outbreak of AIDS in the early 1980s the
disease is in reach of being stopped.
Fittingly, Don Francis, who saw the first
cases of AIDS from his post at the CDC, has
played a key role in stopping this epidemic.
Not surprisingly, the government scientists
are wrong. Again.
Congratulations Don. We never doubted.
Porter Stansberry
complained about this page - and about another
highlighting a promotion in which he claimed that
VaxGen was "the greatest investment
opportunity I've ever seen". Read Porter Stansberry hype. Read Porter Stansberry
complaint.
Later, Stansberry
was prosecuted for securities fraud. Read the result of the SEC
prosecution
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